Regulation strength and technology creep play key roles in global long-term projections of wild capture fisheries

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MIdentificadors digitals: Digital object identifier for the 'European Research Council' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781) Digital object identifier for 'Horizon 2020' (http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007601) - BIGSEA projectMany studies have shown that the global fish catch can only be sustained with effective regulation that restrains overfishing. However, the persistence of weak or ineffective regulation in many parts of the world, coupled with changing technologies and additional stressors like climate change, renders the future of global catches uncertain. Here, we use a spatially resolved, bio-economic size-spectrum model to shed light on the interactive impacts of three globally important drivers over multidecadal timescales: imperfect regulation, technology-driven catchability increase, and climate change. We implement regulation as the adjustment of fishing towards a target level with some degree of effectiveness and project a range of possible trajectories for global fisheries. We find that if technological progress continues apace, increasingly effective regulation is required to prevent overfishing, akin to a Red Queen race. Climate change reduces the possible upper bound for global catches, but its economic impacts can be offset by strong regulation. Ominously, technological progress under weak regulation masks a progressive erosion of fish biomass by boosting profits and generating a temporary stabilization of global catches. Our study illustrates the large degree to which the long-term outlook of global fisheries can be improved by continually strengthening fisheries regulation, despite the negative impacts of climate change

Tractable Combinations of Global Constraints

We study the complexity of constraint satisfaction problems involving global constraints, i.e., special-purpose constraints provided by a solver and represented implicitly by a parametrised algorithm. Such constraints are widely used; indeed, they are one of the key reasons for the success of constraint programming in solving real-world problems. Previous work has focused on the development of efficient propagators for individual constraints. In this paper, we identify a new tractable class of constraint problems involving global constraints of unbounded arity. To do so, we combine structural restrictions with the observation that some important types of global constraint do not distinguish between large classes of equivalent solutions.Comment: To appear in proceedings of CP'13, LNCS 8124. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1307.179

A Graph Based Backtracking Algorithm for Solving General CSPs

Many AI tasks can be formalized as constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs), which involve finding values for variables subject to constraints. While solving a CSP is an NP-complete task in general, tractable classes of CSPs have been identified based on the structure of the underlying constraint graphs. Much effort has been spent on exploiting structural properties of the constraint graph to improve the efficiency of finding a solution. These efforts contributed to development of a class of CSP solving algorithms called decomposition algorithms. The strength of CSP decomposition is that its worst-case complexity depends on the structural properties of the constraint graph and is usually better than the worst-case complexity of search methods. Its practical application is limited, however, since it cannot be applied if the CSP is not decomposable. In this paper, we propose a graph based backtracking algorithm called omega-CDBT, which shares merits and overcomes the weaknesses of both decomposition and search approaches

Development of quality indicators for antimicrobial treatment in adults with sepsis

Background: Outcomes in patients with sepsis are better if initial empirical antimicrobial use is appropriate. Several studies have shown that adherence to guidelines dictating appropriate antimicrobial use positively influences clinical outcome, shortens length of hospital stay and contributes to the containment of antibiotic resistance.Quality indicators (QIs) can be systematically developed from these guidelines to define and measure appropriate antimicrobial use. We describe the development of a concise set of QIs to assess the appropriateness of antimicrobial use in adult patients with sepsis on a general medical ward or Intensive Care Unit (ICU).Methods: A RAND-modified, five step Delphi procedure was used. A multidisciplinary panel of 14 experts appraised and prioritized 40 key recommendations from within the Dutch national guideline on antimicrobial use for adult hospitalized patients with sepsis (http://www.swab.nl/guidelines). A procedure to select QIs relevant to clinical outcome, antimicrobial resistance and costs was performed using two rounds of questionnaires with a face-to-face consensus meeting between the rounds over a period of three months.Results: The procedure resulted in the selection of a final set of five QIs, namely: obtain cultures; prescribe empirical antimicrobial therapy according to the national guideline; start intravenous drug therapy; start antimicrobial treatment within one hour; and streamline antimicrobial therapy.Conclusion: This systematic, stepwise method, which combined evidence and expert opinion, led to a concise and therefore feasible set of QIs for optimal antimicrobial use in hospitalized adult patients with sepsis. The next step will entail subjecting these quality indicators to an applicability test for their clinimetric properties and ultimately, using these QIs in quality-improvement projects. This information is crucial for antimicrobial stewardship teams to help set priorities and to focus improvement. © 2014 van den Bosch et al

Forgotten Antibiotics: An Inventory in Europe, the United States, Canada, and Australia

In view of the alarming spread of antimicrobial resistance in the absence of new antibiotics, this study aimed at assessing the availability of potentially useful older antibiotics. A survey was performed in 38 countries among experts including hospital pharmacists, microbiologists, and infectious disease specialists in Europe, the United States, Canada, and Australia. An international expert panel selected systemic antibacterial drugs for their potential to treat infections caused by resistant bacteria or their unique value for specific criteria. Twenty-two of the 33 selected antibiotics were available in fewer than 20 of 38 countries. Economic motives were the major cause for discontinuation of marketing of these antibiotics. Fourteen of 33 antibiotics are potentially active against either resistant Gram-positive or Gram-negative bacteria. Urgent measures are then needed to ensure better availability of these antibiotics on a global scal

Re: "Comparison of antipseudomonal betalactams for febrile neutropenia empiric therapy: systematic review and network metaanalysis" by Horita et al

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Probabilistic Team Semantics

Team semantics is a semantical framework for the study of dependence and independence concepts ubiquitous in many areas such as databases and statistics. In recent works team semantics has been generalised to accommodate also multisets and probabilistic dependencies. In this article we study a variant of probabilistic team semantics and relate this framework to a Tarskian two-sorted logic. We also show that very simple quantifier-free formulae of our logic give rise to backslashmathrm NP NP -hard model checking problems.Peer reviewe

An introduction to Graph Data Management

A graph database is a database where the data structures for the schema and/or instances are modeled as a (labeled)(directed) graph or generalizations of it, and where querying is expressed by graph-oriented operations and type constructors. In this article we present the basic notions of graph databases, give an historical overview of its main development, and study the main current systems that implement them